How to calculate expected weight loss with rolling 72s

Hello all! So I’ve been fasting for a while and I’ve mainly used alternate day fasting to loose about 40 lbs last year. (195—>155). I’m now completing rolling 72s with a 1 hour keto reefed window. From 1/19-2/12. I’m trying to calculate how much weight I’ll loose. So I started 1/19 (155 lbs) with my first 72 and I’ve been rolling ever since. I’ve completed 3 72 hour cycles and I’ll complete my 4th tomorrow. My last weight in was (142.6). I’ve been steadily loosing 3lbs every 3 days. If I expect this trend to continue, not completely likely because of metabolic changes, I can expect to be around 127.6 by 2/12. Now, I know most of that will be water weight and the general consensus is to predict 0.5lbs of fast lost per day of fasting. This leads me to my next question, do I include the last day of fasting that I had my 1 hour eating window or is that omitted from the calculation? And if this calculation is true with all 3 days counted that would mean (- 11.5lbs—23 days fasted) or (7.5lbs—15 days fasted). So if my calculation ran true that I’d be around 127.6 by 2/12 and only 11.5 lbs of that would be fat that would put me at 143.5lbs after reefed. So would it be true that I’d gain 16 lbs back from water? TLDR: How do you calculate fat loss with rolling 72s? How long will it take to regain the water weight? Sorry this was so long. Day 3 and my mental clarity in on point! Lol

Answer

No good can come from obsessing over numbers.

If you lose but not as much as you predicted you are turning a win into a failure.

I’m not saying don’t weigh yourself, but do it to look for trends, as long as you are losing weight (if that is your goal) then you are on the right track, you only have to lose weight once so what if it takes a little more or less time?

Answer

Your loss of 3 pounds every 3 days is unrealistic. This is water weight and there’s a limited amount of water weight to lose. You will soon find you lose less, and sometimes will even gain weight while not eating at all. Don’t get frustrated by this, it is completely normal.

I never seem to lose all the weight that calorie counters say I should. I think it is because about 20% of your metabolism is digestion, so it is a bit slower than 0.5 pounds a day.

So over 24 days you are fasting 16 days and eating 8 days. I assume that you’ll over eat by 150% on your eating days (gaining 0.25 pounds) and lose 0.4 pounds on your fasting days. So once you regain your water weight you should lose 4.4 pounds (lets say 5) and be 150 pounds. There will be a big variance, through since your water weight varies a lot week by week.

Losing 5 pounds over 3 or 4 weeks is a pretty good pace, imo, keep it up and you should reach your goals soon.

Answer

Soooo this is the way i do my calculations… it wont be 100% accurate but it should be reasonably close….. Plug all ur info into one of the calculators… like for calories…. Im assuming you arent doing much so plug in that you do nothing. Whatever number it spits out divide by 3500 and thatll give you the weight (fat only) you “should” lose each day…. Example u put everything in it says 1750 calories, so 1750/3500=0.5 so you should lose .5 lbs per day of fasting……. Mine is higher than that because im 235 M21 6’, yours may be more or less depending on your body